In an alarming COVID-19 related news, an SBI report suggests that India’s second wave of COVID-19 wave might reach its peak in April and may last up to 100 days. The report is called “Second wave of infections: The beginning of the end?” and is written by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI’s Group Chief Economic Advisor.
The SBI Advisor in his report wrote, “India is witnessing second wave of infection beginning February 2021, with daily new cases rising again. Pan-India total cases in the second wave expected in the order of 25 lakhs (based on trends in data till March 23). Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April.”
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Amid rising cases across states like Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Kerala, the report said how these states have vaccinated around 20% of its elderly population. However, other states with dense population of elderly people like Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and more have not vaccinated desired number of its elderly population. The SBI report suggests that these states must increase the pace at which they are having their civilians vaccinated.
The report touches briefly on the infection ratio and its implication on states. According to the report, states like Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh have higher infection ratio to injection than the country’s average.
The report also charts out how long it would take for the entire population of the country to be vaccinated if the daily vaccination touches the 45-lakh mark. “…if we assume more number of people are willing to take vaccines and the daily vaccine inoculation increases to 40-45 lakhs from the current maximum level of 34 lakhs, then the entire population will be vaccinated in 1 year 9 months and with this capacity we can vaccinate our population above 45 years in 4 months,” the report by SBI said.
The current health infrastructure of the country mapped out by the SBI report suggests that the nation can easily increases its daily vaccination to 1 crore from the current sorry number that is 34 lakhs. The report also said how two emergency approved vaccines Covishield and Covaxin are manufactured at the rate of 52 lakh vaccines per day.
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One of the most glaring revelations of the report is it considering the control of COVID-19 infections through nation-wide lockdown being an ineffective measure. The report states that the economic implications through loss of jobs and economic activities were much severe. The report suggests that the only way forward in controlling the COVID-19 infection rate is increasing the pace of inoculation.
“Though global Covid-19 experience shows second wave much higher in intensity than the first wave, presence of vaccine makes the difference currently. Thus India will be able to manage the situation better,” the report suggests.
Earlier today, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also opined that although the economy may not be out of woods, he doesn’t foresee another lockdown in making. “The revival of economic activity which has happened should continue unabated going forward,” said Mr. Das. However, Mr. Das said that the rising COVID-19 cases is a matter of concern and should be taken seriously.
In the past two days, India accumulated more than 1 lakh COVID-19 cases with 53,476 cases being registered on Wednesday. It was the highest single day spike so far in 2021. With these 1-lakh cases accumulated in just 48-hours, the country’s total tally is now at 1,17,87,534 according to the data provided by the Indian Health Ministry.
Meanwhile, talking a look at the vaccination efforts, a total of 5,31,45,709 doses have been given so far. If one finds the need to categorize them, one will see that 7,956,925 health-care workers have taken the first jab and 5,047,927 have completed their vaccination course by receiving the second jab. Meanwhile, 8,433,875 frontline workers have received their first dose of the vaccine and 3,202,183 have been vaccinated completely by receiving their second dose.
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